How ‘Three Billboards,’ ‘Shape of Water’ have suddenly become the Oscar favorites

How ‘Three Billboards,’ ‘Shape of Water’ have suddenly become the Oscar favorites

In what’s so far been a refreshingly unpredictable race for Oscar’s Best Picture trophy, a pair of clear-cut favorites have emerged.

Martin McDonagh’s Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri and Guillermo del Toro’s The Shape of Water both had monster weeks between Sunday’s Golden Globe Awards and Thursday’s Critics’ Choice Awards (with some BAFTA and Director’s Guild Awards love in between).

Three Billboards, a Coensian crime drama peppered with heavy doses of black comedy, was the big winner at the Globes, prevailing in Best Picture — Drama, Best Actress — Drama (Frances McDormand), Best Original Screenplay (McDonagh), and Best Supporting Actor (Sam Rockwell).

The Globes aren’t always the best predictor when it comes to the Oscars, given that they involve votes from fewer than a hundred foreign journalists and the Oscars are decided by thousands of film professionals. The Globes’ Best Picture — Drama winner has only repeated at the Academy Awards four times over the past 10 years (Moonlight, 12 Years a Slave, Argo, and Slumdog Millionaire), though on one of those years (2011), its Best Picture — Musical or Comedy winner (The Artist) later triumphed at the Oscars.

Regardless, the splashy, high-profile Globes telecast no doubt gave Three Billboards a few shots in the arm only five days before Oscar voting closed. It also boosted the chances of McDormand (who will likely go head-to-head with Lady Bird leading lady Saoirse Ronan, winner of Best Actress — Musical or Comedy) and Sam Rockwell (who pulled off a major upset over the favored star of The Florida Project, Willem Dafoe).

On Thursday, McDormand and Rockwell repeated at the Critics’ Choice Awards, voted on by the Broadcast Film Critics Association and Broadcast Television Journalists Association, this time with McDormand winning head-to-head against Ronan, and Rockwell again topping Dafoe.

In between the two ceremonies, Three Billboards scored nine BAFTA Award nominations: Best Film, Outstanding British Film of the Year, Best Director (McDonagh), Best Leading Actress (McDormand), Best Supporting Actor (Rockwell), Best Supporting Actor again (Woody Harrelson), Best Original Screenplay (McDonagh), Best Cinematography, and Best Editing.

The Post), Luca Guadagnino (Call Me by Your Name), Sean Baker (The Florida Project), a

ace — up against Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird), Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk), and Jordan Peele (Get Out). And on Thursday night, the film came up huge at the Critics’ Choice Awards, winning not only Best Picture but also Best Director, Best Production Design, and Best Score.” data-reactid=”38″>On Th

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